#Ukraine

Feb 1, 2019

Why Russia and China may Make Serious Moves in their Near Abroads in 2019-2020 – and why they may no

Courtesy of Bing Russia and/or China Make a Move – or Don’t In the first part of this piece, I argued that there was a better than even chance why Russian and China might make serious strategic moves with international repercussions in their near-abroads in the next year or so. I also argued that there were important reasons why they might not. First, the reasons for the affirmative view. There are essentially three factors that militate in the direction of a coordinated or u

Feb 1, 2019

Why Russia and China may Make Serious Moves in their Near Abroads in 2019-2020 – and why they may no

Courtesy of Bing #Russia-China Entente, #near abroad, #regional conflict, #Belarus, #Ukraine, #Taiwan, #North Korea, #Venezuela, #East China Sea, #Sea of Azov, #Putin, #Xi Jinping, #Trump, #Finland, #Vietnam, #Soviet-German Alliance, #Canada, #Australia. The Russian-Chinese “Entente” We humans are not very good at anticipating the future, but we understandably try. I think that there is a better than even chance that Russia and /or China will make serious strategic moves with

Aug 1, 2018

Towards Yalta Two

1024px-Yalta_Conference_(Churchill,_Roosevelt,_Stalin)_(B&W) This blog was posted on the CDA-Institute at https://cdainstitute.ca/law-towards-yalta-two/ on 9 August. In February 1945, as it was becoming increasingly clear that Hitler Germany was about to lose World War Two, the leaders of the victory camp – US President Roosevelt, UK Prime Minister Churchill and USSR Communist Party General Secretary and Premier Stalin – met at a much-celebrated meeting in Yalta. Yalta, a res

Sep 29, 2016

Brexit or Bremain: a long and winding road ahead?

The partisans in favour of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) prevailed with almost 52 percent of the votes cast in the referendum on 23 June 2016. The turnout was around 72 percent of the electorate, an impressive number. But is the UK really on its way out? I am not so sure. What I am certain of is that this will not be a simple process. It will be complicated, complex and long, probably much longer than the three-year window presently being discussed. If the UK activa

Jun 30, 2016

Ukraine and the Sino-Russian Relationship

This piece served as the basis for a presentation transmitted via Skype from Kiev, Ukraine to Kingston, Canada for a conference organized on the militarization of Russian foreign policy in June 2016 Introduction A young state, founded only in 1991 as the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine has since gone from one crisis to another. Its growth pains assumed a new quality in 2014, however, with Russia’s seizure of Crimea and the incursion of Russian military elements into Eastern U

Jun 13, 2016

Ukraine and the Sino-Russian Relationship

How will the relationship between Russia and China affect the future trajectory of Ukraine? This article will appear in a book on the militarization of Russian foreign policy, to be published by the McGill University Press in the fall of 2016. Introduction A young state, founded only in 1991 as the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine has since gone from one crisis to another. Its growth pains assumed a new quality in 2014, however, with Russia’s seizure of Crimea and the incurs

Oct 21, 2015

Russia, Syria, Ukraine – and the Rest of the World

Putin’s objectives in Syria have as much or more to do with Russian concerns about developments in the former Soviet Union as with the situation in and around Syria. But the overall thrust of his Syrian campaign can have an impact well beyond that. First and foremost, Putin is trying to project power abroad in an effort to compensate for the fading effectiveness of the model of growth and governance that have been associated with his now fifteen years at and near the pinnacle

Aug 25, 2015

Knocking on the Door of World War IV

Introduction[1] The world is on a precipice. The international community faces a growing array of situations that could precipitate major regional and cross-continental conflict. The norms, patterns of cooperation and the institutions that the West has relied on for over three generations to ensure its protection and rising prosperity – and to spread its benefits to an ever larger part of the world – are under serious fire. The Western track record is anything but pristine:

Jul 31, 2015

A Typical Evening on Russian TV

The other night as I was watching Russia’s main TV channel, it occurred to me that westerners who are not in a position to access and comprehend Russian TV might be interested in knowing what are its main themes and takes. But first, I should explain that while media outlets in Russia are not as controlled as they were in Soviet times, the space open to them for expressing opinions liberally, and critically of the government, has steadily been shrinking. Television is almost

May 14, 2015

Russia’s Victory Celebrations – Militarism and its Uncomfortable Truths

On 9 May 2015, Russia celebrated its victory over Nazi Germany in World War II with a colossal victory parade. While this was an important milestone for Russia and indeed the rest of the world, the victory celebration passed over some highly uncomfortable truths. Celebrating militarism The parade was, on one hand, an unabashed celebration of militarism, designed to make Russians feel that their country is strong again and a match for any adversary. As under the communists, th

Apr 23, 2015

The End of the Sanctions Regime against Russia?

Does a statement by the head of French Military Intelligence before the Assemblée nationale presage a change in Paris’s support for the sanctions regime against Russia? On 25 March, the head of France’s Directorate of Military Intelligence (DRM), General Christophe Gomart, made a statement before France’s L’Assemblée Nationale that may spell the end of the sanctions regime against Russia. This statement has just recently been made public. General Gomart stated the following (

Mar 4, 2015

Munich in Minsk?

Image by Dana Dramowicz This blog was originally posted on the website of the Security Governance Group on 3 March 2015. Thoughts on the meeting on the Ukrainian crisis that recently took place in the Belarusian capital with French President Hollande, German Chancellor Merkel, Ukrainian President Poroshenko and his Russian homologue Vladimir Putin . The 11 February meeting in the Belarusian capital with French President Hollande, German Chancellor Merkel, Ukrainian President

Nov 13, 2014

America’s Chamberlain? Obama and the Challenge of American Power

Neville Chamberlain showing the Anglo-German Declaration to a crowd at Heston Aerodrome on 30 September 1938 If we are honest about our efforts to prevent serious conflict, our track record is weak, to say the least. We fail to prepare for strategic discontinuities. We embrace deals that rest on sand. We often only seriously begin to address threats to our country’s population and material wealth when we no longer have the capacity to do so. A case in point is the story of Ne

Sep 12, 2014

The 2014 NATO Summit: President Putin’s Take

This blog was originally posted on the website of the Centre for Security Governance on 12 September 2014. I have just reread the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit Declaration issued in Cardiff, Wales. I have been trying to put myself in President Putin’s place as I have proceeded. How would he, directly or through his advisors, react to this Declaration? I am just guessing but here we go. First and not most importantly, Putin would have been overwhelmed by its

May 1, 2014

First we take Crimea, then we take Brighton Beach (and then Alaska?)

This blog first appeared on the website of the Centre for Security Governance on 1 May 2014. Vladimir Putin’s ideology has three basic tenets. The first is that Russia has a right and a responsibility to protect Russian speakers outside the country, no matter what. The second is that Russia’s natural borders have been reduced by questionable diplomatic and political deals that must be reversed. The third is that Russia, like the America he recently criticised for just this re

Mar 10, 2014

Should Crimea Join the Russian Federation? – this is not such a great idea, and here are some of the

(Map by NBC news) This blog first was first published on the website of the Centre for Security Governance on 13 March 2014. Despite the emotions conjured up by history, language, culture and the dramatic events of the last few weeks, Crimeans would be wise to ponder whether they would really be better off joining Russia. There are a number of arguments that militate strongly against taking this path. First and foremost, despite what the largely government-owned Russian media

Mar 6, 2014

Putin’s Putsch

Speculation abounds as to whether Putin will plunge on from his Crimean putsch to raise Russian flags in Ukraine’s east. The stage is set if he so elects. The military forces are either in place or gathering. Russian nationalists have deposed local leaders in key Eastern Ukrainian cities, where there are strong Russian minorities, some of their representatives apparently activists in long-standing Russian nationalist organisations and others bussed over the border from Russia

David M Law

The Way I See it

David M Law

The Way I See it