#Russia

Jan 29, 2020

The Three Dictateers

https://images.app.goo.gl/htpzw3n3u6QfwsoR9 I do not easily subscribe to the idea that men/women make history. I am much more at home with the notion that history shapes the environment in which people act and react. There are moments, however, when individuals’ destinies can play a decisive role in determining historical outcomes. We may be at just such a juncture. The three strategically most important countries in the world – the countries with the most lethal weapons and

Aug 8, 2019

Ciber-Especulación

Foto de Buenos Aires el 16 de junio, disponible en la página web de Desdémona Despairs. El “apagón” en el sur de Sudamérica El 16 de junio, casi toda Argentina, Uruguay y partes de Paraguay, Brasil y Chile quedaron en la oscuridad como resultado de un colapso del sistema argentino de redes interconectadas que produjo un corte masivo de energía eléctrica en la región. Por supuesto, se habían experimentado fallas eléctricas en el pasado. Esta es la primera vez, sin embargo, que

Jul 9, 2019

Cyber-Speculation

Photo of Buenos Aires on 16 June, available on website of Desdemona Despairs The Meltdown in the South American South On 16 June, almost all of Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Paraguay, Brazil and Chile were plunged into darkness as the result of a system-wide shut-down of the interconnected parts of the five countries’ electricity grids. Of course, the region has experienced electrical breakdowns in the past. This is the first time, however, that it has had to contend with

Jun 10, 2019

¡Como No Derrocar a un Dictador!

Foto: Los presidentes de Cuba y de Venezuela, Miguel Díaz-Canel y Nicolás Maduro (Cortesía de Nuestro País) Es bastante claro, por ahora, que a pesar de la colosal mala gestión e inmoralidad del régimen de Maduro y de los valientes esfuerzos de la Presidencia alternativa liderada por Guaidó, la dictadura venezolana no se apartará del negocio en lo inmediato. Y esto, por varias razones: Deponer una dictadura es un proceso de gran desafío, en especial una vez que ha mantenido e

May 30, 2019

On Dumping a Dictator

The Cuban and Venezuelan-Presidents, Miguel Díaz-Canel y Nicolás Maduro (courtesy of NUESTRO PAÍS) It is fairly clear now that despite the colossal mismanagement and immorality of the Maduro regime, and the valiant efforts of the Guaido-led alternative presidency, the Venezuelan dictatorship is not going to being going out of business anytime soon. There are several reasons for this. Deposing a dictatorship is a hugely challenging process, especially once it has held power fo

Mar 31, 2019

Defending Canada in a Changing Strategic Environment

Photo: Courtesy of Bing and Business Insider Recently, Canada has been challenged by three countries that were hitherto considered either to be an ally or a country that Canada could partner with economically, even if it did not share its approach to human and political rights. In 2018, US President Trump, arguing that Canadian steel and aluminium exports to the US posed a strategic threat, imposed tariffs of 25% and 10% respectively. After Ottawa’s criticism of its human rig

Aug 26, 2018

La Primavera de Praga, medio siglo después

Foto del periódico ruso Kommersant en el quincuagésimo aniversario de la invasión a Checoslovaquia por el Pacto de Varsovia. (este blog fue publicado en la Página Web: https://cdainstitute.ca el 23 de agosto de 2018.) Durante cuatro meses en 1968, fui un pasante en Praga, la capital de la antigua Checoslovaquia, una ciudad de increíble belleza y gracia, a pesar del peso insoportable de veinte años de gobierno comunista. En teoría, cada día tenía que ir a mi lugar de trabajo –

Aug 1, 2018

Towards Yalta Two

1024px-Yalta_Conference_(Churchill,_Roosevelt,_Stalin)_(B&W) This blog was posted on the CDA-Institute at https://cdainstitute.ca/law-towards-yalta-two/ on 9 August. In February 1945, as it was becoming increasingly clear that Hitler Germany was about to lose World War Two, the leaders of the victory camp – US President Roosevelt, UK Prime Minister Churchill and USSR Communist Party General Secretary and Premier Stalin – met at a much-celebrated meeting in Yalta. Yalta, a res

Jul 6, 2018

NATO Defence Spending in Perspective

(A link to this article was provided in the Newsletter of the Canadian Association of Defence Organizations on 6 July: www.cdainstitute.ca) President Trump’s letter to a number of NATO Allies in the lead-up to the Alliance Summit on 11-12 July, warning them that America is running out of patience as regards their failure to jack up their defence spending is a cheap shot, but a shot nonetheless. It needs to be taken seriously. NATO defence spending is about more than one-digit

Jun 9, 2018

What if (almost all) the Experts on North Korea have Got it Wrong?

(An earlier version of this draft was posted on the website of the Canadian Defence Association Institute on 15 May 2018 at https://cdainstitute.ca/law-what-if-almost-all-the-experts-on-the-korean-question-have-got-it-wrong/) Photo courtesy of CNN There is, of course, plenty that could still go wrong between Washington and Pyongyang in the lead-up to and at the Trump/Kim Jong-Un summit. Everything points to the fact, however, that it will now proceed as planned on 12 June. I

Mar 22, 2018

Global Futures and their Underlying Drivers

(The view of the globe is from The Great Globe Galley.) On June 21 2018, the TopLink site of the Word Economic Forum posted a sightly revised version of this post under the title of Three Scenarios for the Future of Geopolitics To understand events in the international arena, it helps to distinguish whether our current period is essentially stable or in significant flux. In an article written a quarter of a century ago, during another time of rapid and relentless change, my c

Mar 11, 2018

Putin’s Polling Numbers – and what they may say about Russia’s future

On 18 March, Vladimir Putin will almost certainly be elected to his fourth term as President of the Russian Federation. If we include his first term as Prime Minister from 1999-2000 and his second from 2008-2012, when he was for all intents and purposes still President in all but name, by the end of this next term he will have been Russia’s leading politician for a quarter century. Only Joseph Stalin will have been longer at the pinnacle of Russian and Soviet power. Scoring c

Feb 11, 2018

North Korea 101

(With my apologies to the person who produced this juxtaposition – I have lost the link and cannot credit you.) This post appeared on the website of the CDA-Institute on 9 February. There are five pivotal issues that we need to be thinking about when it comes to North Korea. The first and perhaps most important one is that North Korea is an economic basket case. The hermit kingdom, which at the end of the Korean War in 1953 was roughly at par economically with the South, now

Nov 4, 2017

The Halloween Attack on the Hudson River Bike Path – and its broader implications

Details are gradually emerging about the terrorist attack carried out on theHudson River Bike Path on 31 October. The perpetrator, Sayfullo Saipov, is a 29-year old of Uzbek origin, who has been residing legally in the United States since 2010. Taken down by police gunfire, he has claimed from his hospital bed that the attack was carried out in the name of the Islamic State (IS), the main actor that has been opposed to the American anti-terrorist campaign in Syria and Iraq. S

Sep 27, 2017

The Almost Perfect Ploy: how to understand the accelerated enhancement of the North Korean threat: P

This article was posted on the website of the Canadian Defence Association Institute on 19 September 2018. Photocredit: Time Magazine 20 May 2014 Part II: Seeing through the China Russia North Korea Agenda Western observers almost invariably claim that China is opposed to Kim the Third’s nuclear bombast, that Beijing means what it says when it criticizes North Korea, that it is determined to implement the sanctions it has systematically signed-up for in the United Nations Se

Sep 26, 2017

The Almost Perfect Ploy: how to understand the accelerated enhancement of the North Korean threat: P

Photo credit: Daily Telegraph, 31 August 2017. This blog was posted on the website of the Canadian Defence Association Institute on 14 September 2017. Part I: Rethinking the Threat Since 2012, North Korea has succeeded in significantly enhancing its capacity to carry out nuclear explosions and to launch medium- and long-range missiles capable of hitting U.S. allies in Asia and, more recently, U.S. territory itself. The missile that North Korea launched over Japan on 29 August

Aug 17, 2017

Descent into Dictatorship?

America’s descent into chaos moved into a higher gear this past week. It will take a lot of civil courage on the part of a lot of Americans to put the dictatorship genie back in the bottle. The actions and rhetoric emanating from the Oval Office strongly suggest that Trump’s term in office will be characterized by an effort to establish a dictatorship across the United States of America. Ok, go pour yourself a stiff drink and if you are still up to it, read this and think fur

Aug 16, 2017

North Korea: rethinking the threat, one week on

The situation is indeed serious, but don’t expect Kim Jong-un to go over the strategic edge. (This blog appeared on the website of Open.Canada on 16 August.) The American Defense Intelligence Agency has recently assessed that North Korea has succeeded in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead. This would allow it to place a nuclear device on a ballistic missile, such as the two it tested successfully earlier this year. While North Korea probably does not yet have the capacity to att

Aug 3, 2017

President Trump in Europe: how to discredit and dismantle an Alliance

At the G20 Summit that took place in Hamburg on 7-8 July, Presidents Putin and Trump met on at least three occasions. Two of them were rather typical for this kind of event, the third not at all. The first was not really a meeting, just a handshake at the opening session. The second saw the Russian and American Presidents holding a bilateral. As is typical of this kind of event, the two leaders were seconded by their respective foreign ministers and supported by their interpr

Jul 31, 2017

NORTH KOREA – HIGH TIME TO GET REAL, PART I

On America’s Independence Day, North Korea successfully launched a missile that some experts assert can hit targets as far away as Alaska. Apparently, Pyongyang does not yet have the capacity to place a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile. That said, at the rate Kim the Third has been upgrading his country’s attack potential, this may be months as opposed to years away. The launch happened as the Russian and Chinese Presidents were meeting in Moscow, and

David M Law

The Way I See it

David M Law

The Way I See it